Ok, so there is a lot of confusion as to how Ron Paul could pull off a victory at a brokered convention if he can't even participate. Why wouldn't he be able to participate, you ask? Because there is a Gop Rule (click here to view the rules), Rule Number 40, paragraph (b) that gives the impression he would need to win five (5) states to participate in the convention. But this impression is incorrect. He doesn't have to win 5 states according to popular vote, he just needs to demonstrate a majority of delegates within 5 states that would vote for him. Please understand there other equations to this formula, but I am demonstrating the simplest and most likely to occur. Let's break it down, shall we?
The Rule states:
(b) Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of five (5) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination.
Ok, there are two important phrases here: DEMONSTRATE THE SUPPORT and PRIOR TO THE PRESENTATION. What this means is if Ron Paul wins five (5) states according to the popular vote we see on the news, he's a shoe in, because that is enough demonstration and it was prior to the presentation for nomination. Fair enough, right? Knowing this, any of the other candidates have nothing to worry about, because each of them has already won 5 states according to the popular vote. But what about Ron Paul? He hasn't won any state according to popular vote, so he must be out right? Wrong! And hopefully you will begin to understand why.
The news is showing you a "guesstimation" of the delegates based on the popular vote. It makes sense too, because they are trying to keep as simple as possible for people because they just can't predict the future because nobody (delegates) has actually voted yet, therefore they are assuming that all the state delegates elected will vote for the candidate that won the state. But if they had to break it down further, then they would show you the REAL NUMBERS, whereby these numbers would reflect how many of these district delegates within each state would actually vote for which candidate. For example, in the state of Maine, Ron Paul won around 35% of the actual district delegate count within the districts. That was "way ahead of McCain." These district delegates then vote on who will represent the state, otherwise known as "state delegates." The state delegates then go to St. Paul and attend the convention and they are the ones who vote at the convention.
Now, if Ron Paul has won 35% of the actual district delegates, then don't you think they would vote for as many Ron Paul district delegates to become state delegates as possible? And let's say Romney drop outs in a month BEFORE VOTING OCCURS and endorses McCain. He transfers all of his delegates to McCain. If the voting occurs in May for the state delegates, then suddenly many Romney District Delegates decide not to stick around anymore (which does occur, because why waste their own time, right?) It's not that they don't like Mccain, but they just don't want to devote their time anymore because Romney was their guy... so they call it quits and give up their positions -- and now up come the "Alternates". Now imagine if these alternates are again, RON PAUL SUPPORTERS. The voting now occurs in May and Ron Paul ends up with 75% of the total state delegate count. This state was assumed to vote for Romney because he won the state by popular vote -- but now that he's dropped out, people think it will be a slam dunk for McCain because he supposedly gets the delegate support of the Romney team. But as you can see, that is clearly NOT the case. Since Maine is not a winner take all state, Ron Paul has just demonstrated he now has support from the state of Maine, because he has the majority of state delegates voting. Since the GOP isn't looking for FACTUAL PROOF and only looking for a demonstration, that's one state in the bag for Ron Paul. Since the voting occurred in May -- it meets the rules because it happened PRIOR to the convention.
After these examples, I am sure you can see what can happen. But will it happen? Yes, that is the big question my friends. Many nay sayers chant "Not a chance!" And they could be right if Ron Paul doesn't get enough delegates to support him in the districts, as well as enough delegates to support him in the states. There is also the importance of needing candidates to drop out. The more that drop out, the better -- but again, ONLY IF WE SUCCEED IN COLLECTING DELEGATES. Are we succeeding -- yes we are, because MANY SUPPORTERS are starting to understand and are signing up to be one. It's all about the delegates and it's easy to be one as well, as long as you qualify.
So for those of you that really want Ron Paul to win but cannot donate money, then sign up to be delegates now! It's not difficult and believe it or not, you have the power to change the country. So the choice is yours -- and as I always say, don't blame Ron Paul or Grassroots if he doesn't win -- blame ourselves for not becoming delegates. 22 states have yet to vote, so get out there on the line and do something about it, because it ain't over and we still have a huge advantage, because all the other camps are laughing about the whole the delegate strategy -- I know, because I've seen it.
Please understand there are more hurdles ahead that could prevent this from happening, but if we do our part, then trust me, Ron Paul is going to SHOCK AND ROCK the convention! So be a delegate!! Have faith!
Click Here To Learn More About Becoming a Delegate For Your State
2 comments:
fantastic explanation. I was thinking that this was the case but its good to have someone clarify it.
Thanks
Let's say that you successful force the GOP into a brokered convention. What makes you think that a party which wants perpetual war, big spending, and the government in your bedroom will all come together to support a candidate who runs on a platform of liberty?
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